Updated on Friday 08 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 76908 (+2708) 1292144 (+34093) 216863 (+10660) 998373 (+20725)
United Kingdom 30615 (+539) 206715 (+5614) 0 (+0) 176100 (+5075)
Italy 29958 (+274) 215858 (+1401) 96276 (+3031) 89624 (-1904)
Spain 26070 (+213) 256855 (+3173) 163919 (+4560) 66866 (-1600)
France 25987 (+178) 174791 (+600) 55027 (+1055) 93777 (-633)
Brazil 9146 (+610) 135106 (+9888) 55350 (+3980) 70610 (+5298)
Belgium 8415 (+76) 51420 (+639) 12980 (+249) 30025 (+314)
Germany 7392 (+117) 169430 (+1268) 139900 (+2204) 22138 (-1053)
Iran 6486 (+68) 103135 (+1485) 82744 (+1157) 13905 (+260)
Netherlands 5288 (+84) 41774 (+455) 0 (+0) 36486 (+371)
China 4633 (+0) 82885 (+2) 77957 (+46) 295 (-44)
Canada 4408 (+185) 64922 (+1519) 28972 (+1156) 31542 (+178)
Turkey 3641 (+57) 133721 (+1977) 82984 (+4782) 47096 (-2862)
Sweden 3040 (+99) 24623 (+705) 4971 (+897) 16612 (-291)
Mexico 2704 (+197) 27634 (+1609) 17781 (+971) 7149 (+441)
India 1889 (+104) 56351 (+3364) 16776 (+1445) 37686 (+1815)
Switzerland 1810 (+5) 30126 (+66) 25900 (+200) 2416 (-139)
Ecuador 1654 (+36) 30298 (-1583) 3433 (+0) 25211 (-1619)
Peru 1627 (+94) 58526 (+3709) 18388 (+861) 38511 (+2754)
Russia 1625 (+88) 177160 (+11231) 23803 (+2476) 151732 (+8667)
Ireland 1403 (+28) 22385 (+137) 17110 (+0) 3872 (+109)
Portugal 1105 (+16) 26715 (+533) 2258 (+182) 23352 (+335)
Indonesia 930 (+35) 12776 (+338) 2381 (+64) 9465 (+239)
Romania 888 (+24) 14499 (+392) 6144 (+356) 7467 (+12)
Poland 755 (+22) 15047 (+307) 4862 (+207) 9430 (+78)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 265718 (+6224) 3829463 (+99637) 1262050 (+48491)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 257686 ( +2502) 3668885 ( +37965) 1250917 ( +30324)
Sat 09 May 2020 259969 ( +2283) 3704045 ( +35160) 1279724 ( +28806)
Sun 10 May 2020 262048 ( +2079) 3736554 ( +32508) 1306994 ( +27270)
Mon 11 May 2020 263939 ( +1891) 3766564 ( +30010) 1332725 ( +25731)
Tue 12 May 2020 265656 ( +1717) 3794229 ( +27665) 1356930 ( +24205)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82885 (+2) 77957 (+46)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82965 ( +7) 77047 ( +1)
Sat 09 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82971 ( +6) 77048 ( +1)
Sun 10 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82977 ( +6) 77049 ( +1)
Mon 11 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82982 ( +5) 77049 ( +1)
Tue 12 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82986 ( +4) 77050 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 26070 (+213) 256855 (+3173) 163919 (+4560)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 25965 ( +117) 256495 ( +1485) 159633 ( +781)
Sat 09 May 2020 26069 ( +104) 257834 ( +1339) 160193 ( +560)
Sun 10 May 2020 26162 ( +92) 259038 ( +1204) 160593 ( +400)
Mon 11 May 2020 26244 ( +82) 260117 ( +1080) 160878 ( +285)
Tue 12 May 2020 26316 ( +73) 261084 ( +967) 161080 ( +202)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 29958 (+274) 215858 (+1401) 96276 (+3031)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 29799 ( +149) 215535 ( +863) 93560 ( +2005)
Sat 09 May 2020 29933 ( +135) 216318 ( +784) 95487 ( +1928)
Sun 10 May 2020 30055 ( +122) 217030 ( +711) 97335 ( +1848)
Mon 11 May 2020 30165 ( +110) 217674 ( +644) 99104 ( +1768)
Tue 12 May 2020 30264 ( +99) 218258 ( +583) 100791 ( +1688)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 30615 (+539) 206715 (+5614) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 30030 ( +77) 197584 ( +2023) nan ( +nan)
Sat 09 May 2020 30082 ( +52) 199427 ( +1843) nan ( +nan)
Sun 10 May 2020 30118 ( +36) 201103 ( +1676) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 30144 ( +26) 202625 ( +1522) nan ( +nan)
Tue 12 May 2020 30163 ( +19) 204005 ( +1379) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 76908 (+2708) 1292144 (+34093) 216863 (+10660)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 73551 ( +712) 1299028 ( +19048) 219311 ( +7111)
Sat 09 May 2020 74182 ( +631) 1316523 ( +17494) 226041 ( +6730)
Sun 10 May 2020 74740 ( +558) 1332515 ( +15992) 232377 ( +6336)
Mon 11 May 2020 75232 ( +492) 1347071 ( +14556) 238312 ( +5935)
Tue 12 May 2020 75666 ( +434) 1360268 ( +13197) 243845 ( +5533)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 25987 (+178) 174791 (+600) 55027 (+1055)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 25810 ( +111) 168396 ( +97) 54570 ( +564)
Sat 09 May 2020 25908 ( +98) 168478 ( +82) 55101 ( +531)
Sun 10 May 2020 25994 ( +86) 168547 ( +69) 55601 ( +499)
Mon 11 May 2020 26069 ( +75) 168606 ( +58) 56070 ( +470)
Tue 12 May 2020 26135 ( +66) 168655 ( +49) 56511 ( +441)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 7392 (+117) 169430 (+1268) 139900 (+2204)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 7366 ( +77) 168504 ( +454) 139436 ( +1522)
Sat 09 May 2020 7437 ( +71) 168908 ( +404) 140858 ( +1423)
Sun 10 May 2020 7503 ( +66) 169267 ( +359) 142187 ( +1328)
Mon 11 May 2020 7564 ( +61) 169585 ( +318) 143426 ( +1239)
Tue 12 May 2020 7620 ( +56) 169867 ( +282) 144581 ( +1155)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 5288 (+84) 41774 (+455) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 5283 ( +47) 41536 ( +158) nan ( +nan)
Sat 09 May 2020 5327 ( +44) 41676 ( +140) nan ( +nan)
Sun 10 May 2020 5369 ( +41) 41800 ( +124) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 5407 ( +39) 41909 ( +109) nan ( +nan)
Tue 12 May 2020 5444 ( +36) 42005 ( +96) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 8415 (+76) 51420 (+639) 12980 (+249)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 8363 ( +70) 50738 ( +199) 12943 ( +110)
Sat 09 May 2020 8425 ( +63) 50916 ( +177) 13040 ( +98)
Sun 10 May 2020 8482 ( +56) 51073 ( +158) 13127 ( +87)
Mon 11 May 2020 8532 ( +50) 51213 ( +140) 13203 ( +77)
Tue 12 May 2020 8577 ( +45) 51338 ( +124) 13271 ( +68)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 3040 (+99) 24623 (+705) 4971 (+897)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 3023 ( +48) 24870 ( +467) 5895 ( +973)
Sat 09 May 2020 3067 ( +44) 25325 ( +455) 7060 ( +1165)
Sun 10 May 2020 3109 ( +41) 25768 ( +443) 8455 ( +1395)
Mon 11 May 2020 3147 ( +38) 26199 ( +431) 10126 ( +1671)
Tue 12 May 2020 3183 ( +36) 26617 ( +418) 12128 ( +2002)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 755 (+22) 15047 (+307) 4862 (+207)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 767 ( +15) 15007 ( +227) 4982 ( +185)
Sat 09 May 2020 781 ( +14) 15224 ( +217) 5153 ( +171)
Sun 10 May 2020 794 ( +13) 15433 ( +208) 5311 ( +158)
Mon 11 May 2020 806 ( +12) 15632 ( +200) 5455 ( +144)
Tue 12 May 2020 818 ( +12) 15823 ( +191) 5586 ( +131)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 1810 (+5) 30126 (+66) 25900 (+200)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 1819 ( +7) 29835 ( +24) 25635 ( +188)
Sat 09 May 2020 1825 ( +6) 29855 ( +21) 25808 ( +173)
Sun 10 May 2020 1830 ( +5) 29873 ( +18) 25967 ( +159)
Mon 11 May 2020 1834 ( +5) 29889 ( +15) 26114 ( +146)
Tue 12 May 2020 1838 ( +4) 29902 ( +13) 26248 ( +134)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 9146 (+610) 135106 (+9888) 55350 (+3980)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 9401 ( +439) 140623 ( +7903) 49685 ( +752)
Sat 09 May 2020 9826 ( +425) 148624 ( +8001) 50333 ( +648)
Sun 10 May 2020 10233 ( +407) 156671 ( +8047) 50889 ( +556)
Mon 11 May 2020 10621 ( +388) 164712 ( +8041) 51364 ( +475)
Tue 12 May 2020 10988 ( +366) 172693 ( +7981) 51770 ( +405)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 6486 (+68) 103135 (+1485) 82744 (+1157)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 6407 ( +33) 103883 ( +1190) 80953 ( +468)
Sat 09 May 2020 6437 ( +31) 105051 ( +1169) 81374 ( +421)
Sun 10 May 2020 6465 ( +28) 106190 ( +1138) 81753 ( +379)
Mon 11 May 2020 6491 ( +26) 107290 ( +1100) 82094 ( +340)
Tue 12 May 2020 6515 ( +23) 108343 ( +1053) 82399 ( +306)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.